PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WWLWW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensStrasbourg
Shots13 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners3 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Florian Thauvin · Lens · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGuéla Doué · Strasbourg · 71′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFélix Lemaréchal · Strasbourg · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sarr · Strasbourg · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 5′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEmmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMorgan Guilavogui · Lens · 88′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 49′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 9′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 43′ · 0.19 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 41′ · 0.22 xG · on targetIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 69′ · 0.24 xG · goalFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 1′ · 0.62 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.89 xG. Strasbourg: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ismaelo Ganiou · Lens · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 1.89 xG · Strasbourg 0.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

weak

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 5 · 5 too close

1.69 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.85 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.31 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/1311.5 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲10.7 shots/match
5.08 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/134.54 shots/match
3.62 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/133.92 shots/match
46.4%Possessionseason · 13/1350.2%
5.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/133.23 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.23 corners/match
2.54 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/132.62 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲46%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens41.7
Strasbourg58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens71.3
Strasbourg58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens65.7
Strasbourg60.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Strasbourg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens69.5
Strasbourg61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens80.6
Strasbourg2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens73.6
Strasbourg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/511.4 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/552.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/1011.3 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/104.7 shots/match
43.7%Possession10/1048.5%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/102.7 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.69 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.85 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.5 shots/match
5.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.54 shots/match
46.4%Possession13/1350.2%
5.69 corners/matchCorners13/133.23 corners/match
2.54 cards/matchCards13/132.62 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.57 goals/match
0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots7/710.7 shots/match
5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.43 shots/match
49.7%Possession7/749%
8 corners/matchCorners7/72.71 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/713 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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