PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

DDWWL
1–4Full-time recap

Lens

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoLens
Shots16 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kassoum Ouattara · Monaco · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Salisu · Monaco · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 73′ · 0.03 xG · on targetThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Ilenikhena · Monaco · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 9′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMamadou Sangare · Lens · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 54′ · 0.06 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · Lens · 39′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLucas Michal · Monaco · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Salisu · Monaco · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 40′ · 0.08 xG · goalJonathan Gradit · Lens · 13′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Ilenikhena · Monaco · 62′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 10′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Ilenikhena · Monaco · 89′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 42′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 70′ · 0.13 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 6′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 17′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 43′ · 0.18 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · Lens · 60′ · 0.19 xG · goalMamadou Sangare · Lens · 45′ · 0.23 xG · goalAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 78′ · 0.25 xG · on targetRayan Fofana · Lens · 82′ · 0.33 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 21′ · 0.42 xG · goalRayan Fofana · Lens · 81′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 21′ · 0.49 xG · on targetAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.66 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 37′ · 0.82 xG · goalAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 16 shots, 6 on target, 3.26 xG. Lens: 20 shots, 12 on target, 3.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Folarin Balogun · Monaco · 37′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 21′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 40′Mamadou Sangare · Lens · 45′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 3.26 xG · Lens 3.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens have a visible away split

moderate

Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.4%▲PossessionMonaco · Lens45.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonacoLensBaseline
Possession55.4%45.7%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 4 · 6 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.75 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/1213.2 shots/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1214.3 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲5.08 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/123.83 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 12/1245.7%
4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.92 corners/match
4.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/125.33 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲2.5 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1213 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲25%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1267%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco80.6
Lens41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco66.6
Lens71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco33.3
Lens56.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco19.4
Lens86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco83.3
Lens69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco36.1
Lens80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco55.5
Lens72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
53.8%Possession5/547.2%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.9 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots10/1013.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match
54.1%Possession10/1045%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
3.1 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.75 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots12/1213.2 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.08 shots/match
55.4%Possession12/1245.7%
4.33 corners/matchCorners12/125.92 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards12/122.5 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1213 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/61.33 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots7/611.2 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/64.33 shots/match
55%Possession7/642.5%
4.43 corners/matchCorners7/63 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/63.17 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/614.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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