PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleStade Brestois 29
Shots19 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession64%36%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Igor Paixão · Marseille · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDarryl Bakola · Marseille · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArthur Vermeeren · Marseille · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDarryl Bakola · Marseille · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAngel Gomes · Marseille · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 52′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 46′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 68′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAngel Gomes · Marseille · 25′ · 0.11 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 36′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 1′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 9′ · 0.38 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 6′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 64′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Marseille · 58′ · 0.54 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 82′ · 0.62 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Marseille · 33′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 19 shots, 7 on target, 3.46 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Angel Gomes · Marseille · 25′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 33′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 3.46 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.94 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.67 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Marseille.

6.83 days▲Rest daysMarseille · Stade Brestois 295.84 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMarseilleStade Brestois 29Baseline
Rest days6.83 days5.84 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 1 · 4 too close

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.17 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1211.8 shots/match
9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1213.1 shots/match
5.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/123.58 shots/match
3.58 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/124.67 shots/match
59.8%Possessionseason · 12/1243.7%
5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.58 corners/match
3.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/125.58 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲1.58 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1225%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1250%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Stade Brestois 2919.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille91.7
Stade Brestois 2932.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille81.5
Stade Brestois 2927.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille30.6
Stade Brestois 2975
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille61.1
Stade Brestois 2937.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille69.4
Stade Brestois 2941.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille75
Stade Brestois 2942.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/58.2 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
63.4%Possession5/543%
4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
58.5%Possession10/1042.5%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.17 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.8 shots/match
5.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.58 shots/match
59.8%Possession12/1243.7%
5.33 corners/matchCorners12/124.58 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCards12/121.58 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
3.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots6/68.67 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.5 shots/match
60.3%Possession6/644.7%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/63.17 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls6/612 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.84 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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