PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Nantes

DLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreNantes
Shots17 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Issa Soumaré · Le Havre · 19′ · 0.01 xG · on targetYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAyumu Seko · Le Havre · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYounes Namli · Le Havre · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArouna Sangante · Le Havre · 19′ · 0.04 xG · on targetReda Khadra · Le Havre · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedReda Khadra · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLouis Leroux · Nantes · 12′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 4′ · 0.07 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGautier Lloris · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalLoic Négo · Le Havre · 73′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 6′ · 0.14 xG · on targetIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 83′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 17 shots, 4 on target, 0.93 xG. Nantes: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Gautier Lloris · Le Havre · 90′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 4′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 0.93 xG · Nantes 0.23 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Le Havre's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Le Havre have a visible home split

moderate

Le Havre's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Le Havre.

6.07 days▲Rest daysLe Havre · Nantes6.07 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLe HavreNantesBaseline
Rest days6.07 days6.07 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 1 · 4 too close

1.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/120.92 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1210.3 shots/match
10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1216.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/122.58 shots/match
3.58 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125.33 shots/match
47.1%Possessionseason · 12/1242.8%
4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/123.75 corners/match
4.42 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/126.67 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲1.67 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1211.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1217%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1250%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre47.2
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre26.9
Nantes12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre69.5
Nantes21.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre58.3
Nantes41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre63.9
Nantes25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre30.6
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre44.5
Nantes15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/511.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/53.4 shots/match
48%Possession5/540.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots10/1011 shots/match
3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
48.2%Possession10/1043.4%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.92 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.3 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/122.58 shots/match
47.1%Possession12/1242.8%
4.17 corners/matchCorners12/123.75 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards12/121.67 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots6/69.5 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62 shots/match
52%Possession6/643.7%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/63.67 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/61.83 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls6/612.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.07 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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