UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 5 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeOrange VelodromeFull-time recap

Marseille

LWL

0–1Full-time recap

Atalanta

LWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Marseille	Atalanta
Shots	15 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.87 xG/match	1.25 xG/match▲
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	6 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Marseille: 15 shots, 4 on target, 0.87 xG. Atalanta: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 0.87 xG · Atalanta 1.29 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 0 · 14 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/40.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.25 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.84 xG/match

1.7 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.49 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/414.3 shots/match

15.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/415 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43.25 shots/match

6.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/45.75 shots/match

51.3%Possessionseason · 4/446%

2.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/44.25 corners/match

5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/411 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille60.7

Atalanta27.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille41

Atalanta31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille31.2

Atalanta38.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille34.5

Atalanta67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille89.3

Atalanta40.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille8.3

Atalanta40.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille43.8

Atalanta40.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41.25 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.84 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲14.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match

51.3%Possession4/446%

2.75 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41.25 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.84 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲14.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match

51.3%Possession4/446%

2.75 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41.25 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.84 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲14.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match

51.3%Possession4/446%

2.75 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 6 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4