PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

LLWDD
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonParis Saint Germain
Shots9 shots/match9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession28%72%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards6 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 62′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAinsley Maitland-Niles · Lyon · 50′ · 0.05 xG · goalWillian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 18′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAinsley Maitland-Niles · Lyon · 44′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 30′ · 0.11 xG · goalWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 26′ · 0.12 xG · goalAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 80′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 42′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 33′ · 0.34 xG · goalSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 11′ · 0.67 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lyon: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.67 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Afonso Moreira · Lyon · 30′Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Lyon · 50′Warren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 26′Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 33′João Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lyon 0.67 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.08 corners/match▲CornersLyon · Paris Saint Germain6.5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLyonParis Saint GermainBaseline
Corners6.08 corners/match6.5 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lyon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsLyon · Paris Saint Germain16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLyonParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match16.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match8.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 8 · 6 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲2 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲16.8 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲8.5 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲6.42 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲2.58 shots/match
52.8%Possessionseason · 12/1272.3%
6.08 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/126.5 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲2.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲1.25 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1250%
92%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1292%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon69.4
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon50
Paris Saint Germain93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon73.2
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon8.3
Paris Saint Germain25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon68
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon86.1
Paris Saint Germain91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon68.8
Paris Saint Germain72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.4 shots/match
48.6%Possession5/574.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.2 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.9 shots/match
53.5%Possession10/1071.3%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots12/12▲16.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲6.42 shots/match
52.8%Possession12/1272.3%
6.08 corners/matchCorners12/126.5 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards12/121.25 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/7▲2.14 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots6/7▲14.6 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target6/7▲6 shots/match
53.8%Possession6/771.7%
6.17 corners/matchCorners6/76 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/71.14 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls6/79.57 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.16 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLyonParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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