PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

LLLWW
2–1Full-time recap

Nice

DWWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzNice
Shots9 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession49%51%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alpha Touré · Metz · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKoffi Kouao · Metz · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHabibou Diallo · Metz · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTerem Moffi · Nice · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 42′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 9′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 39′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 61′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAbdulay Juma Bah · Nice · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 24′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 74′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 35′ · 0.16 xG · goalHabibou Diallo · Metz · 84′ · 0.53 xG · goalGauthier Hein · Metz · 53′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.64 xG. Nice: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Gauthier Hein · Metz · 53′Habibou Diallo · Metz · 84′Mohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 1.64 xG · Nice 0.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nice. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nice.

7 days▲Rest daysMetz · Nice8.01 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMetzNiceBaseline
Rest days7 days8.01 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 6 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.42 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.83 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲11.1 shots/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1216.5 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲3.92 shots/match
5.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲5.25 shots/match
48.5%Possessionseason · 12/1245.8%
4.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.58 corners/match
5.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/126.5 corners/match
1.75 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/122.42 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1217%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz52.8
Nice41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz10.2
Nice38
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz6.5
Nice21.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Nice58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz20.9
Nice57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz30.6
Nice44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz14.6
Nice43.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
49%Possession5/535.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/52 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲10.4 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.9 shots/match
49.7%Possession10/1043.7%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.42 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.83 shots/matchShots12/12▲11.1 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲3.92 shots/match
48.5%Possession12/1245.8%
4.25 corners/matchCorners12/124.58 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards12/122.42 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.83 shots/matchShots6/6▲10.2 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲3 shots/match
46.5%Possession6/645.2%
3.83 corners/matchCorners6/64.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/63 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls6/613.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.01 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzNice
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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