Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
20Full-time recap

Lille

DWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgLille
Shots5 shots/match6 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners1 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Lille · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNathan Ngoy · Lille · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 1′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEmmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNathan Ngoy · Lille · 16′ · 0.12 xG · on targetEmmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 62′ · 0.27 xG · goalEmmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 33′ · 0.57 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.94 xG. Lille: 6 shots, 4 on target, 0.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Emmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 33′Emmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 0.94 xG · Lille 0.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Strasbourg. A second useful context is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Strasbourg.

7.09 daysRest daysStrasbourg · Lille7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricStrasbourgLilleBaseline
Rest days7.09 days7 days
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/matchShotsStrasbourg · Lille16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgLilleBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match16.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match9.42 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 5 · 7 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/121.92 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/121.25 goals/match
Expected goalsseason · 0/0
Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/1216.3 shots/match
10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/129.42 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/125.08 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/123.25 shots/match
50.7%Possessionseason · 12/1257.7%
3.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/126.92 corners/match
4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/123.75 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/122.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1213.8 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1225%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1267%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg58.3
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg68.5
Lille83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg61.1
Lille82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg36.1
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg54.2
Lille73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg2.8
Lille97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg39.6
Lille86.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
12.4 shots/matchShots5/517.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/55.8 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/561%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/58.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
11.8 shots/matchShots10/1016.8 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/105.4 shots/match
49.7%Possession10/1058.8%
3.1 corners/matchCorners10/107.3 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored12/121.92 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121.25 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
11.8 shots/matchShots12/1216.3 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target12/125.08 shots/match
50.7%Possession12/1257.7%
3.42 corners/matchCorners12/126.92 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards12/122.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/62 goals/match
0.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
Expected goals0/0
12.3 shots/matchShots6/616.2 shots/match
5.83 shots/matchShots on target6/65.5 shots/match
51.7%Possession6/660.7%
3.83 corners/matchCorners6/67.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/63 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls6/614.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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