PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

DDDLD
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesStrasbourg
Shots13 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Samir El Mourabet · Strasbourg · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGuéla Doué · Strasbourg · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRabby Nzingoula · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 39′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLucas Høgsberg · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 69′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 8′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 57′ · 0.09 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 16′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 38′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 77′ · 0.13 xG · goalMousa Tamari · Rennes · 12′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · Strasbourg · 8′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 58′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 38′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 35′ · 0.31 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 48′ · 0.33 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 60′ · 0.35 xG · goalJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 24′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 9′ · 0.55 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 13 shots, 6 on target, 2.31 xG. Strasbourg: 20 shots, 2 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 9′Mohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 35′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 48′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 60′Sebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 2.31 xG · Strasbourg 1.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rennes, Strasbourg. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.64 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rennes, Strasbourg.

3.75 days▲Rest daysRennes · Strasbourg3.75 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRennesStrasbourgBaseline
Rest days3.75 days3.75 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 6 · 7 too close

1.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲2 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.45 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1112.5 shots/match
13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲10.9 shots/match
4.73 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5.09 shots/match
3.82 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/113.82 shots/match
51.4%Possessionseason · 11/1151.5%
5.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/113.64 corners/match
4.18 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/114.36 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/112.36 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1112.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲45%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes58.3
Strasbourg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes74.1
Strasbourg67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes37
Strasbourg56.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes69.4
Strasbourg52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes59.7
Strasbourg47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes72.2
Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes72.2
Strasbourg41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/554%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.8 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match
53.7%Possession10/1050.4%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.5 shots/match
4.73 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.09 shots/match
51.4%Possession11/1151.5%
5.27 corners/matchCorners11/113.64 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards11/112.36 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/61.83 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.7 shots/match▲Shots6/611.3 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.83 shots/match
49%Possession6/649.7%
5.5 corners/matchCorners6/63 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls6/613 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.75 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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