PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

LWWLL
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonStrasbourg
Shots8 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Julio Enciso · Strasbourg · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 90′ · 0.03 xG · goalJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 13′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 17′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRachid Ghezzal · Lyon · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMalick Fofana · Lyon · 44′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 25′ · 0.10 xG · goalIsmael Doukouré · Lyon · 31′ · 0.12 xG · goalAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 59′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMartín Satriano · Lyon · 90′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 35′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 43′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lyon: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.83 xG. Strasbourg: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ismael Doukouré · Lyon · 31′Afonso Moreira · Lyon · 90′Joaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 25′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lyon 1.83 xG · Strasbourg 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 3 · 6 too close

1.44 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/911 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲11.2 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲5 shots/match
3.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/93.89 shots/match
56.3%Possessionseason · 9/949.2%
7.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93.44 corners/match
4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/94.33 corners/match
1.89 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/92.67 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
56%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/944%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon69.4
Strasbourg55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon63.9
Strasbourg61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon77.8
Strasbourg62.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon36.1
Strasbourg13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon66.7
Strasbourg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon97.2
Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon86.1
Strasbourg41
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
59.8%Possession5/545.2%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots9/911 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5 shots/match
56.3%Possession9/949.2%
7.11 corners/matchCorners9/93.44 corners/match
1.89 cards/matchCards9/92.67 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots9/911 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5 shots/match
56.3%Possession9/949.2%
7.11 corners/matchCorners9/93.44 corners/match
1.89 cards/matchCards9/92.67 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
59%Possession5/547.8%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLyonStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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