PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 17 Oct 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainStrasbourg
Shots21 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Possession71%29%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Willian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 38′ · 0.03 xG · on targetQuentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 26′ · 0.04 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 3′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 47′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 35′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 25′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 22′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 78′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 72′ · 0.19 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 53′ · 0.22 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.24 xG · goalDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 41′ · 0.28 xG · goalJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 37′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 6′ · 0.35 xG · goalJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 11′ · 0.42 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 11′ · 0.47 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 49′ · 0.62 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 58′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 21 shots, 9 on target, 2.74 xG. Strasbourg: 12 shots, 7 on target, 2.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 6′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 58′Senny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 79′Joaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 26′Diego Moreira · Strasbourg · 41′Joaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 2.74 xG · Strasbourg 2.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

weak

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

70.8%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Strasbourg48.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainStrasbourgBaseline
Possession70.8%48.9%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Strasbourg11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainStrasbourgBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against9.38 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 2 · 5 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2.13 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/811.5 shots/match
9.38 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/811.6 shots/match
6.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/85.38 shots/match
2.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84 shots/match
70.8%Possessionseason · 8/848.9%
5.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/83.63 corners/match
3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/84.38 corners/match
0.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.38 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/850%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Strasbourg52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain90.7
Strasbourg65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain88.9
Strasbourg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain36.1
Strasbourg41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain2.8
Strasbourg47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain80.6
Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain69.5
Strasbourg37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/56.2 shots/match
67%Possession5/544.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.13 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots8/811.5 shots/match
6.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/85.38 shots/match
70.8%Possession8/848.9%
5.88 corners/matchCorners8/83.63 corners/match
0.88 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls8/811.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.13 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots8/811.5 shots/match
6.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/85.38 shots/match
70.8%Possession8/848.9%
5.88 corners/matchCorners8/83.63 corners/match
0.88 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls8/811.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shots4/410.3 shots/match
6.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.75 shots/match
72.3%Possession4/446.8%
6.25 corners/matchCorners4/42.75 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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