Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

LLDWL

3–3Full-time recap

Stade Brestois 29

LLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29
Shots	12 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	5 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient have a visible home split

weak

Lorient's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.8 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 6 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.75 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.75 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲13.6 shots/match

10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/812.9 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/84.25 shots/match

4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.5 shots/match

44.3%Possessionseason · 8/844.9%

3 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.75 corners/match

4.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/85.88 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.63 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲25%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient25

Stade Brestois 2941.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient46.3

Stade Brestois 2958.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient46.3

Stade Brestois 2931.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient75

Stade Brestois 2986.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient72.2

Stade Brestois 2941.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient2.8

Stade Brestois 2958.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient35.4

Stade Brestois 2956.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match

41.2%Possession5/545.6%

2.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

3.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.75 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.75 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲13.6 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on target8/84.25 shots/match

44.3%Possession8/844.9%

3 corners/matchCorners8/84.75 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards8/81.63 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/812.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.75 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.75 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲13.6 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on target8/84.25 shots/match

44.3%Possession8/844.9%

3 corners/matchCorners8/84.75 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards8/81.63 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/812.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.5 goals/match

2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.8 shots/match▲Shots4/410 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match

47.3%Possession4/444.5%

3.25 corners/matchCorners4/44 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.9 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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