PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

Metz

LDLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseMetz
Shots16 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession36%64%
Corners5 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Frank Magri · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYann Gboho · Toulouse · 18′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAbu Francis · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 2′ · 0.06 xG · goalHabibou Diallo · Metz · 28′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 84′ · 0.11 xG · goalYann Gboho · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 87′ · 0.13 xG · on targetDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 73′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.14 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 53′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 66′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 8′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 16 shots, 7 on target, 2.60 xG. Metz: 2 shots, 2 on target, 0.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Frank Magri · Toulouse · 2′Aron Dønnum · Toulouse · 8′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 79′Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 2.60 xG · Metz 0.10 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Metz's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsToulouse · Metz7.13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseMetzBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match7.13 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metz have a visible away split

weak

Metz's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

8.75 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season7.13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.75 shots/match7.13 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

weak

Metz's last-five shots average is below their season average.

6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season7.13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots6 shots/match7.13 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 2 · 4 too close

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.63 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/82.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/87.13 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/814.9 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/81.88 shots/match
3.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/86.13 shots/match
39.6%Possessionseason · 8/850.1%
4.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/83.75 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲5.38 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.25 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/838%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse8.3
Metz55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse59.3
Metz5.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse66.7
Metz6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse86.1
Metz15.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse30.6
Metz16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse56.3
Metz10.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/56 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
40.6%Possession5/553.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
3.6 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots8/87.13 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/81.88 shots/match
39.6%Possession8/850.1%
4.13 corners/matchCorners8/83.75 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls8/811.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots8/87.13 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/81.88 shots/match
39.6%Possession8/850.1%
4.13 corners/matchCorners8/83.75 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls8/811.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/43.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots4/48.75 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.25 shots/match
38.3%Possession4/454.3%
3.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.75 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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