PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

DWDDD
2–2Full-time recap

Auxerre

LLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesAuxerre
Shots19 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ibrahim Osman · Auxerre · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 67′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 1′ · 0.03 xG · on targetValentin Rongier · Rennes · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 73′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAssane Dioussé · Auxerre · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Rouault · Rennes · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAnthony Rouault · Rennes · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 31′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSeko Fofana · Rennes · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 18′ · 0.09 xG · on targetSeko Fofana · Rennes · 67′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 63′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 66′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 27′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 8′ · 0.17 xG · goalBreel Embolo · Rennes · 18′ · 0.18 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 22′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.43 xG · on targetSeko Fofana · Rennes · 56′ · 0.46 xG · goalLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 72′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 19 shots, 7 on target, 2.01 xG. Auxerre: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Breel Embolo · Rennes · 18′Seko Fofana · Rennes · 56′Danny Namaso · Auxerre · 8′Lassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 2.01 xG · Auxerre 1.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible home split

weak

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match13 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 1 · 7 too close

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/810.6 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲12.6 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.38 shots/match
4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.63 shots/match
52.6%Possessionseason · 8/844.8%
4.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.25 corners/match
4.13 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/84.63 corners/match
2.13 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.88 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/875%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes63.9
Auxerre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes44.4
Auxerre19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes42.6
Auxerre38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes52.8
Auxerre30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes41.6
Auxerre80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes47.2
Auxerre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes46.5
Auxerre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/542.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots8/810.6 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match
52.6%Possession8/844.8%
4.63 corners/matchCorners8/84.25 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls8/812.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots8/810.6 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match
52.6%Possession8/844.8%
4.63 corners/matchCorners8/84.25 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls8/812.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots4/411.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target4/44.75 shots/match
48.8%Possession4/446%
5 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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