PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WLWDW
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensParis FC
Shots11 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners11 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Samir Chergui · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · Lens · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHamari Traoré · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Paris FC · 40′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 17′ · 0.06 xG · goalWesley Saïd · Lens · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 52′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 28′ · 0.10 xG · goalSamson Baidoo · Lens · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 48′ · 0.12 xG · on targetSamson Baidoo · Lens · 64′ · 0.19 xG · goalAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 90′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 9′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.69 xG. Paris FC: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 17′Samson Baidoo · Lens · 64′Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 28′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 1.69 xG · Paris FC 0.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lens's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lens have a visible home split

weak

Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lens's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.4%▲PossessionLens · Paris FC55.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLensParis FCBaseline
Possession44.4%55.6%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 5 · 6 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.63 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.88 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/813.3 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲11.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲4.75 shots/match
3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.25 shots/match
44.4%Possessionseason · 8/855.6%
6.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.63 corners/match
5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/85.38 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.25 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens30.6
Paris FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens62
Paris FC65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens64.8
Paris FC40.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Paris FC36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens72.2
Paris FC11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens91.7
Paris FC47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens73.6
Paris FC49.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/511.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match
37.8%Possession5/557.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.63 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots8/813.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.75 shots/match
44.4%Possession8/855.6%
6.38 corners/matchCorners8/84.63 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.63 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots8/813.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.75 shots/match
44.4%Possession8/855.6%
6.38 corners/matchCorners8/84.63 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/51.2 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.5 shots/match▲Shots4/510.8 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target4/54.2 shots/match
51%Possession4/554.8%
10.5 corners/matchCorners4/53.6 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/51.6 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls4/510.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match