PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Jean Bouin

Paris FC 1–2 Nantes · Ligue 1

1–2Historical match

Nantes

LDDDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nantes won 1–2.

Shots
1411
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.190.9
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nantes beat Paris FC 2–1. Recorded in this match (Paris FC – Nantes): shots 14–11, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.19–0.9, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

weak

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsParis FC · Nantes9.44 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis FCNantesBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match9.44 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots11 shotsParis FC 14 shots, Nantes 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsParis FC 3 shots, Nantes 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG0.9 xGParis FC 1.19 xG, Nantes 0.9 xG
  • Possession68%32%Paris FC 68%, Nantes 32%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersParis FC 8 corners, Nantes 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsParis FC 10 fouls, Nantes 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsParis FC 3 cards, Nantes 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 38′ · 0.01 xG · goalOtávio · Paris FC · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 9′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 2′ · 0.04 xG · goalVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBahmed Deuff · Nantes · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 68′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 11′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 65′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 41′ · 0.23 xG · on targetBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 74′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 15′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.19 xG. Nantes: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Samir Chergui · Paris FC · 15′Youssef El Arabi · Nantes · 2′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 38′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.19 xG · Nantes 0.88 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris FC favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris FC9 matchesNantes9 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.44 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/90.76 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots9/99.44 shots/match
4.56 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/92.22 shots/match
57% ●Possession9/942.1%
5 corners/match ●Corners9/93.67 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/91.44 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis FCNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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