PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

Nantes

LDDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCNantes
Shots14 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 38′ · 0.01 xG · goalOtávio · Paris FC · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 9′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 2′ · 0.04 xG · goalVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBahmed Deuff · Nantes · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 68′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 11′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 65′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 41′ · 0.23 xG · on targetBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 74′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 15′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.19 xG. Nantes: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Samir Chergui · Paris FC · 15′Youssef El Arabi · Nantes · 2′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 38′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.19 xG · Nantes 0.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

weak

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsParis FC · Nantes9.44 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis FCNantesBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match9.44 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 2 · 5 too close

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.78 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.11 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/99.44 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/916.4 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/92.22 shots/match
4.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/94.89 shots/match
57%Possessionseason · 9/942.1%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93.67 corners/match
5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/97.11 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/91.44 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲22%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/944%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC80.6
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC63.9
Nantes12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC45.4
Nantes32.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC25
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC12.5
Nantes20.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC63.9
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC51.4
Nantes15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
60.2%Possession5/543%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots9/99.44 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.22 shots/match
57%Possession9/942.1%
5 corners/matchCorners9/93.67 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/91.44 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots9/99.44 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.22 shots/match
57%Possession9/942.1%
5 corners/matchCorners9/93.67 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/91.44 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/50.8 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/510.4 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/52 shots/match
59.8%Possession4/545.4%
6.75 corners/matchCorners4/53.8 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/51.6 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/512 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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