PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

WLDDD
0–2Full-time recap

Lille

WWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesLille
Shots8 shots/match23 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners5 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Romain Perraud · Lille · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHyeok-kyu Kwon · Nantes · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHyeok-kyu Kwon · Nantes · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAïssa Mandi · Lille · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 11′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 47′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 80′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 89′ · 0.10 xG · goalEthan Mbappé · Lille · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 22′ · 0.16 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Lille · 75′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 8′ · 0.18 xG · goalMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 37′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 19′ · 0.20 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 71′ · 0.25 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 40′ · 0.27 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 35′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 32′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.60 xG. Lille: 23 shots, 5 on target, 2.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 8′Hamza Igamane · Lille · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.60 xG · Lille 2.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.25 shots/match▲ShotsNantes · Lille16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesLilleBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against16.8 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.4%▲PossessionNantes · Lille56.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNantesLilleBaseline
Possession43.4%56.3%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 7 · 5 too close

0.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲16.4 shots/match
16.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲10.5 shots/match
2.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲4.63 shots/match
5.13 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3.5 shots/match
43.4%Possessionseason · 8/856.3%
3.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/86.25 corners/match
7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4 corners/match
1.38 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.38 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
38%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes13.9
Lille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes11.1
Lille80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes32.4
Lille68.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes13.9
Lille80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes22.2
Lille73.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes25
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes18.1
Lille82.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/557.4%
4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShots8/8▲16.4 shots/match
2.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.63 shots/match
43.4%Possession8/856.3%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/86.25 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls8/813.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShots8/8▲16.4 shots/match
2.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.63 shots/match
43.4%Possession8/856.3%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/86.25 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls8/813.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲3 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.25 shots/matchShots4/4▲17.5 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6.25 shots/match
38%Possession4/459.5%
3.5 corners/matchCorners4/47.25 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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