PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 19:05 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

LLLWL
1–2Full-time recap

Lens

WWLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAuxerreLens
Shots18 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession57%43%
Corners2 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲7 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Clement Akpa · Auxerre · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Sierralta · Auxerre · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFrancisco Sierralta · Auxerre · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · Lens · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSékou Mara · Auxerre · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedClement Akpa · Auxerre · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 61′ · 0.11 xG · on targetSékou Mara · Auxerre · 19′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 14′ · 0.14 xG · goalFrancisco Sierralta · Auxerre · 37′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Sierralta · Auxerre · 61′ · 0.79 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Auxerre: 18 shots, 2 on target, 1.82 xG. Lens: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Francisco Sierralta · Auxerre · 61′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 14′Abdallah Sima · Lens · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 1.82 xG · Lens 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lens have a visible away split

weak

Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.25 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match14.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

weak

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 5 · 6 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.43 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲14.3 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/714.4 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.71 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.43 shots/match
44.3%Possessionseason · 7/744.6%
4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/75.71 corners/match
4.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.71 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/72.71 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/713 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre27.8
Lens36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre23.2
Lens63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre49.1
Lens54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre52.8
Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre72.2
Lens73.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre47.2
Lens69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre38.9
Lens68.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
44.2%Possession5/542.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.3 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.71 shots/match
44.3%Possession7/744.6%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/75.71 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards7/72.71 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/713 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.3 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.71 shots/match
44.3%Possession7/744.6%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/75.71 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards7/72.71 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/713 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/41 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/match▲Shots4/49.25 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲3 shots/match
43.5%Possession4/437.8%
3.5 corners/matchCorners4/42.25 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/43.75 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls4/413.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.01 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 23:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAuxerreLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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