PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

WLDWD
0–0Full-time recap

Lens

LWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesLens
Shots14 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession67%33%
Corners8 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Seko Fofana · Rennes · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNordan Mukiele · Rennes · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSeko Fofana · Rennes · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 27′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNordan Mukiele · Rennes · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · Lens · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · Lens · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 69′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 84′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMousa Tamari · Rennes · 70′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAnthony Rouault · Rennes · 60′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · Lens · 65′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 70′ · 0.18 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 23′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.20 xG. Lens: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.20 xG · Lens 1.00 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lens have a visible away split

weak

Lens's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsRennes · Lens15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesLensBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against15.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 7 · 5 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲15.5 shots/match
15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲13.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.83 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3.67 shots/match
52%Possessionseason · 6/644.8%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66.33 corners/match
4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/66.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲1.83 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/633%
67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/650%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes58.3
Lens36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes43.5
Lens70.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes33.3
Lens56.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes52.8
Lens97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes58.4
Lens33.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes47.2
Lens83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes51.4
Lens70.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
56.8%Possession5/542.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲15.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.83 shots/match
52%Possession6/644.8%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/66.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/61.83 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls6/611.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲15.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.83 shots/match
52%Possession6/644.8%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/66.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/61.83 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls6/611.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots3/310 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match
47.7%Possession3/336%
4.67 corners/matchCorners3/32.33 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.99 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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