PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap

Lille

DWWWL
0–1Full-time recap

Lyon

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleLyon
Shots14 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls20 fouls/match24 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Tiago Santos · Lille · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMalick Fofana · Lyon · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMalick Fofana · Lyon · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNathan Ngoy · Lille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 11′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMalick Fofana · Lyon · 16′ · 0.07 xG · on targetPavel Šulc · Lyon · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 19′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 66′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 18′ · 0.21 xG · on targetAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 7′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 69′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 13′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.46 xG. Lyon: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Tyler Morton · Lyon · 13′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.46 xG · Lyon 0.50 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon have a visible away split

weak

Lyon's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/match▲CornersLille · Lyon6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLilleLyonBaseline
Corners6.33 corners/match6 corners/match4.75 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsLille · Lyon11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleLyonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against9.83 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Lyon in 3 · 7 too close

2.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/611.8 shots/match
9.83 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/613.5 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/64.83 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/63.17 shots/match
58.2%Possessionseason · 6/653.5%
6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66 corners/match
3.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/65.17 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/62.33 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/617 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲83%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille91.7
Lyon63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille88.9
Lyon52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille69.5
Lyon75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille80.6
Lyon25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille68.1
Lyon76.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille83.3
Lyon69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille84.7
Lyon70.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
59%Possession5/555.2%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/516.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots6/611.8 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target6/64.83 shots/match
58.2%Possession6/653.5%
6.33 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/62.33 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls6/617 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots6/611.8 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target6/64.83 shots/match
58.2%Possession6/653.5%
6.33 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/62.33 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls6/617 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.3 shots/match▲Shots3/38 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3.33 shots/match
58%Possession3/347.7%
6 corners/matchCorners3/35.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/33.33 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls3/319 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleLyon
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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