PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

Rennes

LDWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreRennes
Shots10 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alidu Seidu · Rennes · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLoic Négo · Le Havre · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGodson Kyeremeh · Le Havre · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 50′ · 0.04 xG · on targetQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoic Négo · Le Havre · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 29′ · 0.09 xG · goalFelix Mambimbi · Le Havre · 17′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 67′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 79′ · 0.38 xG · goalBreel Embolo · Rennes · 10′ · 0.71 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.76 xG. Rennes: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Issa Soumaré · Le Havre · 45′Rassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 79′Breel Embolo · Rennes · 10′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 1.76 xG · Rennes 1.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes have a visible away split

weak

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsLe Havre · Rennes12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreRennesBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against8.43 shots/match14.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 3 · 7 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/712.1 shots/match
8.43 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/714.7 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲3.86 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.14 shots/match
46.4%Possessionseason · 7/752.7%
4.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.43 corners/match
3.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.43 corners/match
1.86 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72.29 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲29%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/771%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre41.7
Rennes58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre29.6
Rennes41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre76.9
Rennes37.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre63.9
Rennes41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre63.9
Rennes54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre33.3
Rennes41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre47.2
Rennes45.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/558.4%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots7/712.1 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲3.86 shots/match
46.4%Possession7/752.7%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/74.43 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls7/712.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots7/712.1 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲3.86 shots/match
46.4%Possession7/752.7%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/74.43 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls7/712.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots4/49 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.75 shots/match
50.3%Possession4/456.5%
4 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls4/411.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.85 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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