Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

LWWWL

2–2Full-time recap

Nice

WLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Monaco	Nice
Shots	20 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	66%	34%
Corners	6 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Monaco: 20 shots, 6 on target, 3.06 xG. Nice: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 3.06 xG · Nice 1.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monaco's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Monaco have a visible home split

weak

Monaco's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.3 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 4 · 6 too close

2.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.29 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/71.71 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲13.7 shots/match

12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/713.1 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.29 shots/match

3.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/75 shots/match

56.6%Possessionseason · 7/752.9%

5.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.43 corners/match

5.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.57 corners/match

2.29 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72.57 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲14%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco86.1

Nice63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco58.3

Nice52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco46.3

Nice28.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco13.9

Nice69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco54.2

Nice69.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco61.1

Nice97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco47.9

Nice70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.2 shots/matchShots5/513.4 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match

54.4%Possession5/551.6%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

2.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.71 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲13.7 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.29 shots/match

56.6%Possession7/752.9%

5.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.43 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards7/72.57 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

2.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.71 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲13.7 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.29 shots/match

56.6%Possession7/752.9%

5.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.43 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards7/72.57 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches

3.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/31.33 goals/match

1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.3 shots/match▲Shots4/312.3 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/33 shots/match

56.5%Possession4/351.7%

5.25 corners/matchCorners4/36.33 corners/match

1 cards/matchCards4/33.67 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls4/312 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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