PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

LLDLD
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzMarseille
Shots4 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession38%62%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Angel Gomes · Marseille · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFodé Ballo-Touré · Metz · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 5′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatt O'Riley · Marseille · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 49′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHabibou Diallo · Metz · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmir Murillo · Marseille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatt O'Riley · Marseille · 69′ · 0.08 xG · goalTimothy Weah · Marseille · 65′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatt O'Riley · Marseille · 72′ · 0.09 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 51′ · 0.10 xG · goalBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 11′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 50′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 48′ · 0.16 xG · on targetBilal Nadir · Marseille · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAngel Gomes · Marseille · 9′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 76′ · 0.48 xG · goalRobinio Vaz · Marseille · 38′ · 0.57 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.14 xG. Marseille: 21 shots, 9 on target, 2.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Igor Paixão · Marseille · 51′Matt O'Riley · Marseille · 69′Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 0.14 xG · Marseille 2.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Metz's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz have a visible home split

weak

Metz's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

5.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season7.86 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots5.5 shots/match7.86 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

7.86 shots/match▲ShotsMetz · Marseille14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzMarseilleBaseline
Shots7.86 shots/match14.4 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match9.57 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 9 · 4 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.14 goals/match
2.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
7.86 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲14.4 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲9.57 shots/match
1.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5.43 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.29 shots/match
48.1%Possessionseason · 7/757.3%
4.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.29 corners/match
5.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.43 corners/match
1.14 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72.43 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%
43%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz47.2
Marseille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz7.4
Marseille83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz7.4
Marseille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Marseille58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz15.2
Marseille61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz25
Marseille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz12.5
Marseille72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/553.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match
2.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.86 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.4 shots/match
1.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.43 shots/match
48.1%Possession7/757.3%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.29 corners/match
1.14 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls7/712.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match
2.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.86 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.4 shots/match
1.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.43 shots/match
48.1%Possession7/757.3%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.29 corners/match
1.14 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls7/712.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
0.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
5.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲16.5 shots/match
1.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲5.5 shots/match
46%Possession4/459%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/46 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.84 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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