UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 30 Sept 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeOrange VelodromeFull-time recap

Marseille

4–0Full-time recap

AFC Ajax

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Marseille	AFC Ajax
Shots	9 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.13 xG/match▲	0.8 xG/match
Possession	48%	52%
Corners	0 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	18 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Marseille: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.10 xG. AFC Ajax: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 1.10 xG · AFC Ajax 0.78 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 0 · 14 too close

—Goals scoredseason · 2/2—

—Goals allowedseason · 2/2—

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

—Shotsseason · 2/2—

—Shots allowedseason · 2/2—

—Shots on targetseason · 2/2—

—Shots on target allowedseason · 2/2—

—Possessionseason · 2/2—

—Cornersseason · 2/2—

—Corners allowedseason · 2/2—

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

—Foulsseason · 2/2—

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

—Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 2/2—

—Scoring frequencyseason · 2/2—

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille—

AFC Ajax—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille—

AFC Ajax—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille—

AFC Ajax—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille—

AFC Ajax—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille—

AFC Ajax—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille—

AFC Ajax—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille—

AFC Ajax—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Window

Last 10

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Window

Season

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1 / 1 matches

—Goals scored1/1—

—Goals allowed1/1—

—Expected goals1/1—

—Shots1/1—

—Shots on target1/1—

—Possession1/1—

—Corners1/1—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls1/1—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples2 / 2home / away teams

Recent samples2 / 2last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Sept 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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