PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Nantes

LWLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Nantes
Shots17 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners12 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Hugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKenny Lala · Stade Brestois 29 · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Locko · Stade Brestois 29 · 35′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 57′ · 0.19 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 18′ · 0.32 xG · on targetJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 38′ · 0.49 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.50 xG. Nantes: 6 shots, 0 on target, 0.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.50 xG · Nantes 0.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Nantes9.43 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29NantesBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match9.43 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match15.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

weak

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match14.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 2 · 5 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.71 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/79.43 shots/match
13 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/715.9 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/72 shots/match
4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/75.14 shots/match
44.1%Possessionseason · 7/744.3%
5.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.71 corners/match
6 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76.71 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.43 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Nantes27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2968.5
Nantes12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2940.7
Nantes29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2997.2
Nantes19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2933.4
Nantes23.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2963.9
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2959
Nantes16
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
42%Possession5/546%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots7/79.43 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72 shots/match
44.1%Possession7/744.3%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards7/71.43 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots7/79.43 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72 shots/match
44.1%Possession7/744.3%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/73.71 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards7/71.43 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.3 shots/match▲Shots4/410.3 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/41.75 shots/match
45.3%Possession4/448.8%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Nantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match