PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 19:05 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Auxerre

WLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainAuxerre
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession66%34%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 67′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetQuentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAssane Dioussé · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Sierralta · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 81′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 5′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint Germain · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIlya Zabarnyi · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.11 xG · goalBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.27 xG · on targetLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.28 xG · goalQuentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 88′ · 0.38 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 47′ · 0.40 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 15 shots, 8 on target, 1.73 xG. Auxerre: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ilya Zabarnyi · Paris Saint Germain · 32′Lucas Beraldo · Paris Saint Germain · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.73 xG · Auxerre 0.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Auxerre's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

72.2%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Auxerre42.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 30.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainAuxerreBaseline
Possession72.2%42.2%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Auxerre have a visible away split

weak

Auxerre's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match10 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Auxerre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Auxerre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.5 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Auxerre10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainAuxerreBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match10 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 0 · 4 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/610 shots/match
9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/612.5 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.5 shots/match
2.17 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/64.33 shots/match
72.2%Possessionseason · 6/642.2%
6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65 corners/match
3.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/64.83 corners/match
0.67 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62.83 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/613 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/633%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Auxerre13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain87
Auxerre16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain93.5
Auxerre53.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain19.4
Auxerre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain2.8
Auxerre79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain69.4
Auxerre55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain62.5
Auxerre42.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
72.4%Possession5/541.8%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
0.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots6/610 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.5 shots/match
72.2%Possession6/642.2%
6.33 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards6/62.83 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls6/613 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots6/610 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.5 shots/match
72.2%Possession6/642.2%
6.33 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards6/62.83 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls6/613 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match
0 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.7 shots/match▲Shots3/312.7 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target3/35 shots/match
72.7%Possession3/345.3%
7 corners/matchCorners3/36 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/312 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.05 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 23:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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