PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

LWLLD
3–1Full-time recap

Monaco

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLorientMonaco
Shots19 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Takumi Minamino · Monaco · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBamo Meïté · Lorient · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Cabral · Monaco · 88′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 82′ · 0.05 xG · goalAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 42′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 80′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 43′ · 0.12 xG · on targetKarim Dermane · Lorient · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 76′ · 0.14 xG · goalSambou Soumano · Lorient · 80′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 19′ · 0.17 xG · on targetMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 40′ · 0.20 xG · goalSambou Soumano · Lorient · 66′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedSambou Soumano · Lorient · 80′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lorient: 19 shots, 8 on target, 2.00 xG. Monaco: 5 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mohamed Bamba · Lorient · 40′Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 76′Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 82′Ansu Fati · Monaco · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 2.00 xG · Monaco 1.00 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient have a visible home split

weak

Lorient's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsLorient · Monaco10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLorientMonacoBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 6 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/610.8 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/612.5 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.17 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3.67 shots/match
43.8%Possessionseason · 6/655%
2.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65 corners/match
5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.83 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲2.5 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/612.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient30.6
Monaco72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient44.5
Monaco47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient45.4
Monaco50.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient75
Monaco8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient77.8
Monaco63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3
Monaco55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient36.8
Monaco42.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
41.4%Possession5/551.2%
2 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots6/610.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.17 shots/match
43.8%Possession6/655%
2.33 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards6/62.5 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls6/612.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots6/610.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.17 shots/match
43.8%Possession6/655%
2.33 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards6/62.5 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls6/612.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots3/38 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32 shots/match
46.3%Possession3/356.7%
2.67 corners/matchCorners3/35 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.99 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLorientMonaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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