PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade du Moustoir

Lorient 3–1 AS Monaco · Ligue 1

Lorient

LWLLD
3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lorient won 3–1.

Shots
195
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
1.980.92
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lorient beat Monaco 3–1. Recorded in this match (Lorient – Monaco): shots 19–5, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 1.98–0.92, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lorient have a visible home split

weak

Lorient's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLorient · Monaco10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLorientMonacoBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots5 shotsLorient 19 shots, AS Monaco 5 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsLorient 8 shots, AS Monaco 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.98 xG0.92 xGLorient 1.98 xG, AS Monaco 0.92 xG
  • Possession47%53%Lorient 47%, AS Monaco 53%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersLorient 2 corners, AS Monaco 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsLorient 10 fouls, AS Monaco 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsLorient 2 cards, AS Monaco 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Takumi Minamino · Monaco · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBamo Meïté · Lorient · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Cabral · Monaco · 88′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 82′ · 0.05 xG · goalAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 42′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 80′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 43′ · 0.12 xG · on targetKarim Dermane · Lorient · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 76′ · 0.14 xG · goalSambou Soumano · Lorient · 80′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 19′ · 0.17 xG · on targetMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 40′ · 0.20 xG · goalSambou Soumano · Lorient · 66′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedSambou Soumano · Lorient · 80′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lorient: 19 shots, 8 on target, 2.00 xG. Monaco: 5 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mohamed Bamba · Lorient · 40′Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 76′Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 82′Ansu Fati · Monaco · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 2.00 xG · Monaco 1.00 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Lorient
4Draws
1AS Monaco
AS Monaco — Lorient · Ligue 12–2
Lorient — AS Monaco · Ligue 12–2
AS Monaco — Lorient · Ligue 13–1
Lorient — AS Monaco · Ligue 12–2
AS Monaco — Lorient · Ligue 10–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lorient favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · AS Monaco in 7

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lorient6 matchesAS Monaco6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 2.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.54 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.8 xG/match
12.2 shots/match ▲Shots6/610.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.17 shots/match
43.8%Possession6/6● 55%
2.33 corners/matchCorners6/6● 5 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards6/62.5 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls6/612.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLorientAS Monaco
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headLorient — AS Monaco
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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