PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreLorient
Shots13 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession60%40%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls20 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲6 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Younes Namli · Le Havre · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Faye · Lorient · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Faye · Lorient · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBamo Meïté · Lorient · 83′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetArthur Avom Ebong · Lorient · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 70′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAyumu Seko · Le Havre · 43′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFelix Mambimbi · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGautier Lloris · Le Havre · 47′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 4′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blockedAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 21′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 12 shots, 1 on target, 1.53 xG. Lorient: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Aiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 21′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 1.53 xG · Lorient 1.23 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Lorient's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lorient's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsLe Havre · Lorient10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreLorientBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against8.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lorient have a visible away split

weak

Lorient's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.67 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 1 · 5 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/510.8 shots/match
8.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/511.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/53.4 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 5/55 shots/match
47%Possessionseason · 5/543.2%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/52.4 corners/match
3.2 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/56 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 5/54 cards/match
16 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/513.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/5▲20%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 5/560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre36.1
Lorient25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre40.8
Lorient29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre62.1
Lorient31.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre75
Lorient47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre72.2
Lorient87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre27.8
Lorient8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre54.2
Lorient36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
47%Possession5/543.2%
4 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match
16 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
47%Possession5/543.2%
4 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match
16 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
47%Possession5/543.2%
4 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match
16 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots3/38.67 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match
52.7%Possession3/341.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners3/32 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/33.67 cards/match
16.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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