PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgLe Havre
Shots9 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mathis Amougou · Strasbourg · 37′ · 0.01 xG · on targetYanis Zouaoui · Le Havre · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · Strasbourg · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLoic Négo · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYanis Zouaoui · Le Havre · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 80′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKendry Páez · Strasbourg · 76′ · 0.04 xG · on targetValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 14′ · 0.06 xG · on targetYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 2′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 2′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 31′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 32′ · 0.15 xG · on targetGautier Lloris · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 48′ · 0.22 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 9 shots, 7 on target, 1.42 xG. Le Havre: 10 shots, 1 on target, 0.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Joaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 1.42 xG · Le Havre 0.64 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Strasbourg have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsStrasbourg · Le Havre12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgLe HavreBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against8.25 shots/match8.75 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Strasbourg have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.3%▲PossessionStrasbourg · Le Havre43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgLe HavreBaseline
Possession54.3%43.8%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/412.3 shots/match
8.25 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/48.75 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/44.75 shots/match
1.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44 shots/match
54.3%Possessionseason · 4/443.8%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/43.5 corners/match
4.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/43.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.75 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/415 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
75%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg69.4
Le Havre19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg46.3
Le Havre50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg92.6
Le Havre59.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg19.4
Le Havre75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg50
Le Havre66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg47.2
Le Havre13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg45.1
Le Havre53.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲12.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target4/44.75 shots/match
54.3%Possession4/443.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲12.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target4/44.75 shots/match
54.3%Possession4/443.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲12.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target4/44.75 shots/match
54.3%Possession4/443.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStrasbourgLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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