PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Paris FC
Shots23 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners6 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Hamidou Makalou · Stade Brestois 29 · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 37′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHamidou Makalou · Stade Brestois 29 · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 25′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaxime López · Paris FC · 82′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKenny Lala · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKenny Lala · Stade Brestois 29 · 43′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 1′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 47′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 68′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 43′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 43′ · 0.15 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 32′ · 0.18 xG · on targetBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 23′ · 0.22 xG · on targetVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 34′ · 0.22 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 43′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 14′ · 0.35 xG · goalIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 29′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 32′ · 0.43 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 34′ · 0.59 xG · goalRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 52′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 23 shots, 8 on target, 2.82 xG. Paris FC: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 52′Willem Geubbels · Paris FC · 14′Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 34′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 2.82 xG · Paris FC 1.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Paris FC have a visible away split

weak

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match14 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois 29 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Stade Brestois 29's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Paris FC14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29Paris FCBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match14 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match14 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.3%▲PossessionStade Brestois 29 · Paris FC53%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29Paris FCBaseline
Possession44.3%53%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.75 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/42.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/414 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/414 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/46 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44.75 shots/match
44.3%Possessionseason · 4/453%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/46 corners/match
5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.5 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/49 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2930.6
Paris FC63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2956.5
Paris FC81.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2921.3
Paris FC29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2997.2
Paris FC63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2938.9
Paris FC15.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2938.9
Paris FC63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2950.7
Paris FC61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/414 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/453%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/46 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/49 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/414 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/453%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/46 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/49 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots4/414 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/453%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/46 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/49 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 3 matches
—Goals scored2/31.33 goals/match
—Goals allowed2/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/310.7 shots/match
—Shots on target2/35 shots/match
—Possession2/353.7%
—Corners2/33.33 corners/match
—Cards2/31.67 cards/match
—Fouls2/310.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Paris FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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