PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Lens

LWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainLens
Shots14 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 55′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRuben Aguilar · Lens · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 58′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRayan Fofana · Lens · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 51′ · 0.04 xG · goalIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 15′ · 0.06 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Bermont · Lens · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 9′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 79′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 87′ · 0.16 xG · on targetIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 30′ · 0.20 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 37′ · 0.20 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 9′ · 0.72 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.04 xG. Lens: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 15′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 51′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.04 xG · Lens 1.60 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.5 corners/match▲CornersParis Saint Germain · Lens7.5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainLensBaseline
Corners7.5 corners/match7.5 corners/match5.13 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

74.8%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Lens49.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainLensBaseline
Possession74.8%49.5%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Lens16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainLensBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against8.25 shots/match13 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 0 · 14 too close

2.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/416.3 shots/match
8.25 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/413 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/45.25 shots/match
2.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44.25 shots/match
74.8%Possessionseason · 4/449.5%
7.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/47.5 corners/match
2.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45 corners/match
0.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.5 cards/match
7.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/411 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
75%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Lens52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain88
Lens65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain90.7
Lens50.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain25
Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain2.8
Lens29.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain88.9
Lens88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain66
Lens70.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/matchShots4/416.3 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/45.25 shots/match
74.8%Possession4/449.5%
7.5 corners/matchCorners4/47.5 corners/match
0.5 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
7.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/matchShots4/416.3 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/45.25 shots/match
74.8%Possession4/449.5%
7.5 corners/matchCorners4/47.5 corners/match
0.5 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
7.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/matchShots4/416.3 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target4/45.25 shots/match
74.8%Possession4/449.5%
7.5 corners/matchCorners4/47.5 corners/match
0.5 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
7.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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