PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 19:05 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

LWWL
3–0Full-time recap

Lille

DWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensLille
Shots15 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession38%62%
Corners4 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ayyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCalvin Verdonk · Lille · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 19′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChancel Mbemba · Lille · 42′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · Lens · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · Lens · 52′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAïssa Mandi · Lille · 89′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 26′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 28′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 6′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 40′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 14′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 43′ · 0.18 xG · goalFélix Correia · Lille · 22′ · 0.31 xG · on targetMorgan Guilavogui · Lens · 76′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 69′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 52′ · 0.44 xG · goalFélix Correia · Lille · 15′ · 0.49 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 22′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 28′ · 0.70 xG · goalFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 6′ · 0.94 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 15 shots, 6 on target, 3.65 xG. Lille: 17 shots, 3 on target, 2.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 28′Florian Thauvin · Lens · 43′Rayan Fofana · Lens · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 3.65 xG · Lille 2.03 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.8 corners/match▲CornersLens · Lille7 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLensLilleBaseline
Corners6.8 corners/match7 corners/match5.13 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Lens have a visible home split

weak

Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

21 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots21 shots/match16 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16 shots/match▲ShotsLens · Lille17 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLensLilleBaseline
Shots16 shots/match17 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 6 · 6 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲17 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/5▲10.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/55.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲3.6 shots/match
47.2%Possessionseason · 5/559%
6.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/57 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/5▲3.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 5/52 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/512.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/520%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens41.7
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens75.9
Lille89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens56.5
Lille64.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens27.8
Lille45.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens80.6
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens72.9
Lille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
47.2%Possession5/559%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
47.2%Possession5/559%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
47.2%Possession5/559%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲3.33 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
21 shots/match▲Shots3/315.7 shots/match
7 shots/matchShots on target3/36.67 shots/match
53.7%Possession3/358.3%
10.3 corners/matchCorners3/36.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.25 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 23:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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