Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

WLLL

1–0Full-time recap

Toulouse

WWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Auxerre	Toulouse
Shots	6 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Possession	40%	60%
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	20 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	6 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Auxerre: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.70 xG. Toulouse: 13 shots, 3 on target, 2.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 0.70 xG · Toulouse 2.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre have a visible home split

weak

Auxerre's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.33 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.33 shots/match	9.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 9 too close

0.8 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

9.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲10.4 shots/match

12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/513.6 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/53.6 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/53.6 shots/match

43.8%Possessionseason · 5/540.8%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/54.4 corners/match

4.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/57 corners/match

3 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/53 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/512.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/540%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre30.6

Toulouse8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre21.3

Toulouse35.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre60.2

Toulouse44.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre19.4

Toulouse63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre87.5

Toulouse76.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre52.8

Toulouse47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre47.2

Toulouse42.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match

43.8%Possession5/540.8%

5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match

43.8%Possession5/540.8%

5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match

43.8%Possession5/540.8%

5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

7.33 shots/matchShots3/3▲10.7 shots/match

2 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3 shots/match

39%Possession3/344.3%

4 corners/matchCorners3/34.67 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards3/34.67 cards/match

14 fouls/matchFouls3/314.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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