Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 29 Aug 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

LW

3–1Full-time recap

Stade Brestois 29

DL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lens	Stade Brestois 29
Shots	30 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	68%	32%
Corners	15 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lens: 30 shots, 10 on target, 4.07 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 4.07 xG · Stade Brestois 29 1.10 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens have recorded the higher season possession share. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Lens have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3%▲PossessionLens · Stade Brestois 2943.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Lens	Stade Brestois 29	Baseline
Possession	55.3%	43.7%	49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 0 · 14 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31.33 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32.67 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

18 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/314.3 shots/match

12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/315.3 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/33 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/36.33 shots/match

55.3%Possessionseason · 3/343.7%

9 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/34 corners/match

5.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/36.67 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32.33 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/311 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/367%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens75

Stade Brestois 2925

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens75

Stade Brestois 2925

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens75

Stade Brestois 2925

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens25

Stade Brestois 2975

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens50

Stade Brestois 2950

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens75

Stade Brestois 2925

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens75

Stade Brestois 2925

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

18 shots/match▲Shots3/314.3 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match

55.3%Possession3/343.7%

9 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

18 shots/match▲Shots3/314.3 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match

55.3%Possession3/343.7%

9 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

18 shots/match▲Shots3/314.3 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match

55.3%Possession3/343.7%

9 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 29 Aug 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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