Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 24 Aug 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap

Toulouse

W

2–0Full-time recap

Stade Brestois 29

D

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Toulouse	Stade Brestois 29
Shots	6 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	3 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Toulouse: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.30 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 16 shots, 2 on target, 0.96 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.30 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.96 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 0 · 14 too close

—Goals scoredseason · 2/2—

—Goals allowedseason · 2/2—

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

—Shotsseason · 2/2—

—Shots allowedseason · 2/2—

—Shots on targetseason · 2/2—

—Shots on target allowedseason · 2/2—

—Possessionseason · 2/2—

—Cornersseason · 2/2—

—Corners allowedseason · 2/2—

—Cardsseason · 2/2—

—Foulsseason · 2/2—

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

—Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 2/2—

—Scoring frequencyseason · 2/2—

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse—

Stade Brestois 29—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse—

Stade Brestois 29—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse—

Stade Brestois 29—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse—

Stade Brestois 29—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse—

Stade Brestois 29—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse—

Stade Brestois 29—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse—

Stade Brestois 29—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Window

Last 10

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Window

Season

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards2/2—

—Fouls2/2—

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1 / 1 matches

—Goals scored1/1—

—Goals allowed1/1—

—Expected goals0/0—

—Shots1/1—

—Shots on target1/1—

—Possession1/1—

—Corners1/1—

—Cards1/1—

—Fouls1/1—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples2 / 2home / away teams

Recent samples2 / 2last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 Aug 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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