PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 19:05 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
3–6Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseParis Saint Germain
Shots14 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession24%76%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Dayann Methalie · Toulouse · 76′ · 0.00 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 47′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMario Sauer · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMario Sauer · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlexis Vossah · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 78′ · 0.07 xG · goalJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 14′ · 0.08 xG · goalCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 7′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 9′ · 0.21 xG · goalCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.24 xG · goalJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 7′ · 0.29 xG · goalYann Gboho · Toulouse · 89′ · 0.60 xG · goalOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 31′ · 0.82 xG · goalCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.82 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 51′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.26 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 13 shots, 8 on target, 2.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 37′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 89′Alexis Vossah · Toulouse · 90′João Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 7′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 9′João Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 14′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 31′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 51′João Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 2.26 xG · Paris Saint Germain 2.64 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

38%▲PossessionToulouse · Paris Saint Germain77%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 39.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession38%77%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsToulouse · Paris Saint Germain17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots10 shots/match17.3 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match7.33 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 0 · 14 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/32.67 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/31 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/317.3 shots/match
14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/37.33 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/35.33 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/32 shots/match
38%Possessionseason · 3/377%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/38.67 corners/match
8.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/32.33 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/30.33 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/36.67 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/367%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse6.2
Paris Saint Germain93.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse39.6
Paris Saint Germain77.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse35.4
Paris Saint Germain87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse43.8
Paris Saint Germain18.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse37.5
Paris Saint Germain6.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse37.5
Paris Saint Germain81.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse32.8
Paris Saint Germain59.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots3/3▲17.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.33 shots/match
38%Possession3/377%
4 corners/matchCorners3/38.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/30.33 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/36.67 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots3/3▲17.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.33 shots/match
38%Possession3/377%
4 corners/matchCorners3/38.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/30.33 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/36.67 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots3/3▲17.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.33 shots/match
38%Possession3/377%
4 corners/matchCorners3/38.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/30.33 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/36.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.01 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 23:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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