PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesAuxerre
Shots4 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners3 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gideon Mensah · Auxerre · 16′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedClement Akpa · Auxerre · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFrancis Coquelin · Nantes · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 73′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Oppegård · Auxerre · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHong Hyun-seok · Nantes · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 6′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 60′ · 0.15 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 71′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 8′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.47 xG. Auxerre: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.47 xG · Auxerre 0.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Nantes show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nantes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

6 shots/match▲ShotsNantes · Auxerre11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesAuxerreBaseline
Shots6 shots/match11 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 0 · 14 too close

0.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/30.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
6 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/311 shots/match
15.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/311.3 shots/match
1.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/35 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/34 shots/match
41%Possessionseason · 3/348.7%
3.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/35.67 corners/match
7.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/34 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/33 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/314.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%
33%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/367%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes18.8
Auxerre43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes6.2
Auxerre35.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes47.9
Auxerre50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes6.2
Auxerre31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes25
Auxerre81.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes18.8
Auxerre56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes12.5
Auxerre56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲0.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6 shots/matchShots3/3▲11 shots/match
1.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5 shots/match
41%Possession3/348.7%
3.67 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲0.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6 shots/matchShots3/3▲11 shots/match
1.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5 shots/match
41%Possession3/348.7%
3.67 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲0.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6 shots/matchShots3/3▲11 shots/match
1.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5 shots/match
41%Possession3/348.7%
3.67 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match