Premier League · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

WWDWD

1–0Full-time recap

Brighton

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Leeds	Brighton
Shots	7 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.97 xG/match	2.46 xG/match▲
Possession	34%	66%
Corners	7 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.32 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brighton have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.5%▲PossessionLeeds · Brighton54.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Leeds	Brighton	Baseline
Possession	45.5%	54.2%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leeds

0Draws

1Brighton

1 Nov 2025Brighton — Leeds · Premier League3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 8 · 5 too close

1.32 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/37▲1.41 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/37▲1.16 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.82 xG/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/81.1 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/3713 shots/match

12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/37▲11.6 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/37▲4.7 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/37▲3.78 shots/match

45.5%Possessionseason · 37/3754.2%

4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/375 corners/match

5.03 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/374.86 corners/match

1.68 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 31/292.48 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3711.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲27%

70%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/37▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds27.5

Brighton77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds49.2

Brighton64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds48.3

Brighton79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds92.5

Brighton42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds32.5

Brighton87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds27.5

Brighton52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds41.2

Brighton70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.76 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match

44.2%Possession5/563.4%

4 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/100.9 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.82 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots10/1013.6 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match

46.3%Possession10/1058.1%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/2—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

37 / 37 matches

1.32 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲1.41 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲1.16 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.82 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots37/3713 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target37/37▲4.7 shots/match

45.5%Possession37/3754.2%

4.43 corners/matchCorners37/375 corners/match

1.68 cards/matchCards31/292.48 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls37/3711.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.16 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.37 goals/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲1.69 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots19/1912.2 shots/match

4.37 shots/matchShots on target19/194.32 shots/match

47.7%Possession19/1953.2%

5.58 corners/matchCorners19/194.79 corners/match

1.47 cards/matchCards15/143.21 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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