Premier League · 2025Fri, 15 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap

Aston Villa

DWLLD

4–2Full-time recap

Liverpool

WWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Liverpool
Shots	14 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.91 xG/match▲	1.52 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%
Corners	4 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.46 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.46 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Liverpool15.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Liverpool	Baseline
Shots	12.6 shots/match	15.2 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	12.7 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Aston Villa

0Draws

1Liverpool

1 Nov 2025Liverpool — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 7 · 4 too close

1.46 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/37▲1.68 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 37/371.41 goals/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.22 xG/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.53 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/37▲15.2 shots/match

12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/37▲11.5 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/374.51 shots/match

4.41 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/37▲4.08 shots/match

53.6%Possessionseason · 37/3759.2%

5.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/375.89 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/37▲4.46 corners/match

1.62 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/291.55 cards/match

9.89 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3710 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲27%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/37▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa72.5

Liverpool92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa60.8

Liverpool79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa44.2

Liverpool60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa32.5

Liverpool62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa15

Liverpool16.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa62.5

Liverpool82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa47.5

Liverpool65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match

1.36 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.07 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match

53%Possession5/554.8%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.22 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.3 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match

53.4%Possession10/1055.9%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

37 / 37 matches

1.46 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲1.68 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed37/371.41 goals/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.22 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots37/37▲15.2 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on target37/374.51 shots/match

53.6%Possession37/3759.2%

5.22 corners/matchCorners37/375.89 corners/match

1.62 cards/matchCards29/291.55 cards/match

9.89 fouls/matchFouls37/3710 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

1.68 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.53 goals/match

1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.74 goals/match

1.59 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.22 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots19/1913.7 shots/match

4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.05 shots/match

53.1%Possession19/1959.7%

5.53 corners/matchCorners19/195.95 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards15/151.8 cards/match

9.63 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.31 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 15 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match