PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

LWWLL
0–2Full-time recap

Chelsea

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyChelsea
Shots8 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession44%56%
Corners1 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Burnley's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.17 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Chelsea14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyChelseaBaseline
Shots8.17 shots/match14.4 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against17.3 shots/match9.33 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Burnley have a visible home split

moderate

Burnley's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.17 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season8.17 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots6.17 shots/match8.17 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.8%▲PossessionBurnley · Chelsea59.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyChelseaBaseline
Possession38.8%59.4%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 9 · 4 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.92 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.17 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲14.4 shots/match
17.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲9.33 shots/match
3.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲5.58 shots/match
5.83 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲2.75 shots/match
38.8%Possessionseason · 12/1259.4%
2.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/126.67 corners/match
6.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲3.83 corners/match
1.75 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/122.42 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1211.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲50%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley16.7
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley5.8
Chelsea83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley17.5
Chelsea47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley33.8
Chelsea76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley2.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley11.9
Chelsea85.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
44.2%Possession5/558%
2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.2 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
39.1%Possession10/1058.2%
2.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.92 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.17 shots/matchShots12/12▲14.4 shots/match
3.08 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.58 shots/match
38.8%Possession12/1259.4%
2.58 corners/matchCorners12/126.67 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards12/122.42 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.33 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6.17 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.3 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5.67 shots/match
36.5%Possession6/657%
2 corners/matchCorners6/65.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/63.17 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/611.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.7 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match