PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

Chelsea

WDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestChelsea
Shots12 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.63 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

weak

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Chelsea13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestChelseaBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match11 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 9 · 4 too close

0.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲13.4 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲11 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲4.75 shots/match
5.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3.25 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 8/859.1%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.88 corners/match
4.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.63 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲38%
38%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest67.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest36.7
Chelsea83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest16.7
Chelsea65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest17.5
Chelsea52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest57.5
Chelsea73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest50
Chelsea82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest54.4
Chelsea73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots5/512.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match
54.6%Possession5/557.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots8/8▲13.4 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.75 shots/match
55.4%Possession8/859.1%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/85.88 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards8/82.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots8/8▲13.4 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.75 shots/match
55.4%Possession8/859.1%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/85.88 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards8/82.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.75 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots4/412.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲5 shots/match
56.8%Possession4/458.5%
6.5 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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