PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleArsenal
Shots8 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners7 corners/match12 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/match▲CornersNewcastle · Arsenal7.5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleArsenalBaseline
Corners6 corners/match7.5 corners/match4.92 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

weak

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle · Arsenal14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleArsenalBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match14.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against9.5 shots/match8.67 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 8 · 5 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2 goals/match
0.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲14.3 shots/match
9.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲8.67 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3 shots/match
48.8%Possessionseason · 6/656.3%
6 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/67.5 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3.17 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/61.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/650%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle47.5
Arsenal72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle19.2
Arsenal77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle77.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle27.5
Arsenal67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle46.2
Arsenal42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle75
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle48.1
Arsenal75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
46.6%Possession5/559.8%
6 corners/matchCorners5/58.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match
0.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲14.3 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4 shots/match
48.8%Possession6/656.3%
6 corners/matchCorners6/67.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards6/61.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match
0.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲14.3 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4 shots/match
48.8%Possession6/656.3%
6 corners/matchCorners6/67.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards6/61.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲13.3 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3.67 shots/match
44%Possession3/349.7%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/38 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/312.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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