PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

Fulham

DDLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaFulham
Shots9 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners2 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible home split

weak

Aston Villa's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.33 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.33 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Fulham in 5 · 5 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/610.2 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲10 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲3.17 shots/match
3.17 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/63.83 shots/match
57.5%Possessionseason · 6/651.2%
5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/64.83 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲5.17 corners/match
1.83 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62.5 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/614.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%
33%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa82.5
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa14.2
Fulham30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa55
Fulham53.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa2.5
Fulham12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa40
Fulham87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa60
Fulham47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa32.5
Fulham48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.4 shots/match
61%Possession5/551.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots6/610.2 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲3.17 shots/match
57.5%Possession6/651.2%
5.33 corners/matchCorners6/64.83 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/62.5 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/614.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots6/610.2 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲3.17 shots/match
57.5%Possession6/651.2%
5.33 corners/matchCorners6/64.83 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/62.5 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/614.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.33 shots/matchShots3/3▲9.67 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match
48.7%Possession3/349.3%
5 corners/matchCorners3/35 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/315 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.75 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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