PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordChelsea
Shots7 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.25 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Chelsea15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordChelseaBaseline
Shots8.25 shots/match15 shots/match10.9 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match10.3 shots/match10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

37.5%▲PossessionBrentford · Chelsea62.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordChelseaBaseline
Possession37.5%62.8%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/42.25 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/40.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.25 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/415 shots/match
14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/410.3 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/45.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/43.75 shots/match
37.5%Possessionseason · 4/462.8%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/47 corners/match
5.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/44.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.75 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/410 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford2.5
Chelsea97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford34.2
Chelsea91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford21.7
Chelsea63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford47.5
Chelsea72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford68.8
Chelsea41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford35
Chelsea97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford39.4
Chelsea78.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.25 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.25 shots/matchShots4/4▲15 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲5.5 shots/match
37.5%Possession4/462.8%
4 corners/matchCorners4/47 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/410 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.25 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.25 shots/matchShots4/4▲15 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲5.5 shots/match
37.5%Possession4/462.8%
4 corners/matchCorners4/47 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/410 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.25 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.25 shots/matchShots4/4▲15 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲5.5 shots/match
37.5%Possession4/462.8%
4 corners/matchCorners4/47 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/410 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.3 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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