PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthBrighton
Shots13 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13 fouls/match▲FoulsBournemouth · Brighton14.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthBrightonBaseline
Fouls13 fouls/match14.3 fouls/match10.9 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Brighton10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthBrightonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match10.3 shots/match10.9 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match10.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 0 · 14 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/410.3 shots/match
9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/410.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/44.25 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/43.25 shots/match
47%Possessionseason · 4/448.5%
6.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/43.25 corners/match
3.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/42.75 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/43 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/414.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth37.5
Brighton47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth78.3
Brighton48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth64.2
Brighton50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth92.5
Brighton42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth86.2
Brighton91.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth90
Brighton10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth82.5
Brighton51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots4/410.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.25 shots/match
47%Possession4/448.5%
6.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.25 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots4/410.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.25 shots/match
47%Possession4/448.5%
6.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.25 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots4/410.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.25 shots/match
47%Possession4/448.5%
6.75 corners/matchCorners4/43.25 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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