PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonAston Villa
Shots20 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners10 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Aston Villa10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEvertonAston VillaBaseline
Shots12 shots/match10 shots/match10.9 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.3%▲PossessionEverton · Aston Villa56.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEvertonAston VillaBaseline
Possession44.3%56.5%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/40 goals/match
0.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/410 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/412.8 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/42.5 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/42.75 shots/match
44.3%Possessionseason · 4/456.5%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/46.25 corners/match
3.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/44.75 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.25 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/411 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/40%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton22.5
Aston Villa72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton46.7
Aston Villa19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton53.3
Aston Villa55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton87.5
Aston Villa7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton61.2
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton37.5
Aston Villa82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton40.6
Aston Villa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots4/410 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/42.5 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/456.5%
4 corners/matchCorners4/46.25 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots4/410 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/42.5 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/456.5%
4 corners/matchCorners4/46.25 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots4/410 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/42.5 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/456.5%
4 corners/matchCorners4/46.25 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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