PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonManchester City
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession37%63%●
Corners3 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.3%PossessionBrighton · Manchester City●60.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrightonManchester CityBaseline
Possession48.3%60.7%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton
2Draws
2Manchester City
Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–2
Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City · Premier League2–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City · Premier League0–4
Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 0 · 13 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/312.3 shots/match
10 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/311 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/33.67 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/35 shots/match
48.3%Possessionseason · 3/3●60.7%
3 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/3●4.67 corners/match
2.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/33 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/31.67 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/39.33 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/367%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton36.1
Manchester City91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton55.6
Manchester City68.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton70.4
Manchester City36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton69.4
Manchester City25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton95.8
Manchester City36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton16.7
Manchester City52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton63.2
Manchester City54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton3 matchesManchester City3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots3/3▲12.3 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match
48.3%Possession3/3●60.7%
3 corners/matchCorners3/3●4.67 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls3/39.33 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton2 matchesManchester City2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Brighton vs Manchester City — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath