PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City · Premier League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.82.6
Expected goals
1.331.87
Shots
16.413.6
Possession
47.2%63.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. No second reading clears the same sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.2%PossessionNottingham Forest · Manchester City● 63.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestManchester CityBaseline
Possession47.2%63.2%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 8 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest5 matchesManchester City5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 2.6 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed5/51 goal/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 1.87 xG/match
16.4 shots/match ▲Shots5/513.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 5.4 shots/match
47.2%Possession5/5● 63.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/5● 6.2 corners/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nottingham Forest
1Draws
3Manchester City
Manchester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2
Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League1–2
Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League1–0
Manchester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0
Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness49 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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