PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Medellín vs Alianza Valledupar FC · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.480.8
Expected goals
1.270.91
Shots
14.711.2
Possession
52.9%44.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: alianza Valledupar FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: independiente Medellín have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Alianza Valledupar FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alianza Valledupar FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Independiente Medellín have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.9% ●PossessionIndependiente Medellín · Alianza Valledupar FC44.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellínAlianza Valledupar FCBaseline
Possession52.9%44.5%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Alianza Valledupar FC in 0 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín29 matchesAlianza Valledupar FC30 matches
1.48 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/300.8 goals/match
1.28 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/301.6 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/260.91 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots29/3011.2 shots/match
4.97 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/303 shots/match
52.9% ●Possession29/3044.5%
5.14 corners/match ●Corners29/304.17 corners/match
3.92 cards/matchCards12/64.67 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls29/3011.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Independiente Medellín
0Draws
0Alianza Valledupar FC
Alianza Valledupar FC — Independiente Medellín · Primera A0–1

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness34 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínAlianza Valledupar FC
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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