PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar FC · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.40.84
Expected goals
1.070.91
Shots
14.911.6
Possession
53.6%44.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: alianza Valledupar FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: once Caldas have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Alianza Valledupar FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alianza Valledupar FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.84 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match0.84 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Once Caldas have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.6% ●PossessionOnce Caldas · Alianza Valledupar FC44.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOnce CaldasAlianza Valledupar FCBaseline
Possession53.6%44.8%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Once Caldas favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Alianza Valledupar FC in 1

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Once Caldas35 matchesAlianza Valledupar FC32 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored35/320.84 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed35/321.66 goals/match
1.07 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/280.91 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots33/3211.6 shots/match
5.61 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/323.13 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession33/3244.8%
5.12 corners/match ●Corners33/324.25 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards9/85.25 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls33/3212.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Once Caldas
1Draws
0Alianza Valledupar FC
Alianza Valledupar FC — Once Caldas · Primera A1–1

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples35 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness19 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOnce CaldasAlianza Valledupar FC
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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